Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/02/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	440 1/4	-3 1/2
Corn Dec '26	466 1/4	-6
Beans July '26	1165 1/4	-15 1/4
Beans Nov '26	1177 3/4	-11
Wheat-Chi July '26	603	-5 3/4
Wheat-KC July '26	634 1/2	-12 1/4
Wheat-MN July '26	637	-15
Cotton Dec '26	80.49	+0.33
Crude Oil July '26	93.63	+1.47
US Dollar Index	99.170	+0.030
Dow Jones	51,406	+272

utside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Another session of fund long liquidation took the grains lower across the board, with little to stand in the way once the selling got going. July corn pressed to another multi month low, creeping back toward its yearly low set in January (and back within a dime of its CONTRACT low), while beans took the worst of it and broke down to levels not seen in nearly two months.

Crude was firm, approaching yesterday morning's high, catching a bid on reports that Iran had stopped negotiating (again) and planned to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut. Our markets continue to distance themselves, having gone their own way from crude lately with the trade leaning on bearish seasonals and soft charts.

Beans stayed tied to the China story. With nothing concrete out of Beijing to back up the tariff talk that came out of the Trump meeting, the selling rolled on, and there's a sense the market is doing China's work for them as they wait on cheaper prices to cover what they still owe.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: The slide below key moving averages continues in July corn with it closing today at an almost 4 month low. Resistance is now at 455 and 466 while support comes in at today's low of 440 and then around 433-435.

July soybeans' support should be near, particularly between 1155 and 1160. Resistance is likely near 1185 and 1194. We have been discussing the bearish "head and shoulders" formation on the soybean chart and our minimum objective was reached today for that. 

Spreads: The July/November carry got to 15 cents today before firming late to 12 1/4 today with the trade seemingly not believing any nearby sales to China are likely. We have been saying that we felt the spread would prevent a buying opportunity near a 13-14 cent carry.

The July/Dec corn spread widened a bit more to 29 early before firming and closing near 26. We certainly find these levels attractive considering the impressive run of exports and possible Chinese interest.

Weather:  TStorm left ratings unchanged today, with corn and winter wheat holding at Slightly Favorable and beans at Neutral. Upper level high pressure keeps much of the Plains and the northwest half of the Corn Belt warmer to much warmer than normal over the next 7 to 10 days, with pockets of rain firing within the high, at least an inch probable out west including spring and HRW wheat, but thinning to the east as drier air takes over.

The high should break down around 10 days out as the jet stream strengthens, though it's too early to know if that's a real pattern change or just a brief blip. Two uncertainties hang over the forecast and won't resolve easily, exact rainfall coverage and amounts over the next 10 days, and the strength and timing of a cool front 10 to 15 days out.

Markets/Trading Implications

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The trend is still pointed lower for the time being, which means we could see more of this selling before it runs its course. That said, we keep coming back to the same view that the downside from here looks limited, with just about all of the war and weather premium already wrung out of these prices.

On corn, the funds are still working off a long that built up over the winter and spring, and until that's cleaned up the path of least resistance stays down. But the demand side keeps quietly building underneath.  We wouldn't be chasing sales down here unless you have to get something done.

Beans remain more vulnerable of the two near term, mostly because they're hostage to China and an expected bearish quarterly stocks and acreage update at the end of this month. Until Beijing actually does something to confirm the tariff talk, rallies are going to be a grind and the selling can feed on itself. We'd be patient here rather than turning loose of bushels into this kind of break.

Bigger picture, none of this changes our thinking that it isn't the start of a new bear market. The balance sheets are tightening, the China demand is still out there whenever it decides to show up, and the part of the growing season that actually matters is still in front of us.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 26 showed actively traded funds sold a net 88k corn contracts, taking net longs down to 226k contracts. They sold 18k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 190k, and sold 14k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 39k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 18 cents, July beans lost 24 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 32 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 8 cents, soybeans were flat, and Chicago wheat lost 26 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.