Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/01/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	444	-2 3/4
Corn Dec '26	472 1/2	-2 1/2
Beans July '26	1180 3/4	-6
Beans Nov '26	1188 3/4	-1 1/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	608 3/4	-1 3/4
Wheat-KC July '26	647	-2 3/4
Wheat-MN July '26	652 1/2	-11 1/4
Cotton Dec '26	80.16	+.57
Crude Oil July '26	92.27	+4.91
US Dollar Index	99.12	+.27
Dow Jones	51,079	+46

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

---

Our markets succumbed to continued fund selling, spurred on by crop friendly weather forecasts. 

Even a higher crude oil market couldn't support them, although it gave it a good try when crude spiked higher just before the grain market day session open. Crude ran up to a peak gain of $7.42 which briefly turned our markets higher, but as the day session proceeded, grains turned negative and much of crude's gains eroded. 

The crude volatility was once again tied to the latest news from the war front, this time to reports that Iran was stopping all negotiations with the US and promised to keep the Strait of Hormuz completely blocked. Needless to say this was seen as bullish crude oil, but regardless of that news, crude peaked at around 10 am CST, but is still about $4.80 higher as of an hour after the grain close. 

By the grain close, July corn sank to about a four month low, soybeans to a two week low, and Chicago wheat to a three week low. 

Stocks are higher, again trading at all time highs. 

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: The slide below key moving averages continues in July corn with it closing today at an almost 4 month low. Resistance is now at 450 and 466 while support comes in at today's low of 440 and then around 433-435.

July soybeans' support should still be seen around 1170-1171, and then below at 1160. Resistance is likely at 1190-1191 and 1200. There is a head and shoulders (bearish formation) near 1216 that bulls want to see broken with a close through the "neckline" near 1191 (also the 50 day average).

Spreads: The July/November inverse is now gone with it closing at an 8 cent carry today with the trade seemingly not believing any nearby sales to China are likely. We feel the carry would prevent a buying opportunity near a 13-14 cent carry.

The July/Dec corn spread widened a bit more to 28 1/2, a level we certainly find attractive considering the impressive run of exports and possible Chinese interest.

Weather:  TStorm's global ratings improved over the weekend and today with both corn and wheat improving to Slightly Favorable, while soybeans stayed at Neutral.

They are calling for .75-1.50 inches for most of the corn belt over the next week.

Markets/Trading Implications

---

As discussed in Friday's letter, corn had closed right around the level where the bigger funds had flipped to being net long, and we have now closed below that level. This will likely encourage more fund liquidation of their still considerable longs. This harsh weakness over the past two weeks (a drop of about 40 cents) leaves little war or weather premium in our view, yet we are supposedly near some kind of big interest from China, although skepticism remains high regarding that possibility.   We feel it's far too early to have any major assumptions that yet another excellent crop is on its way and would have to think that fund managers are not likely to suddenly flip to a short position.

Between the still very strong crude oil market, excellent demand, rising inflation, and a possible large uptick in Chinese interest, we see additional short term weakness as likely limited.   

Bottom line is that we wouldn't be chasing corn sales at these levels unless you have to. Please reach out with any questions regarding your specific situation.As for beans, we have a similar stance in terms of limited downside, but they could be vulnerable to a bit of a bigger slide from current prices, especially if soybean oil starts to correct at all from its recent multi year high. We want to remain optimistic on some improvement in demand from China, but the market will need to see some tangible evidence of that soon to avoid more long liquidation..

Stay tuned. More volatility is likely ahead. Call anytime!

Other Notes

---

• Crush margins remain near record high levels of around $4.00. Biodiesel and ethanol demand remains very strong. Weekly export inspections were excellent for corn and (seasonally) weak for soybeans. Corn's export pace remains extremely strong, and suggests a possible hike in the USDA export projection in the June 11 S&D. 

  
  

• The possible delay in the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is a growing concern as it relates to availability of fertilizer for South America, who imports about 85% of their fertilizer needs through that region. 

  
  

• Today's Crop Progress report included the first crop condition ratings of the season and corn came in at 67% good/excellent, soybeans at 66%, and spring wheat at 47%. All three came in a little less than expected. 

  
  

Static Notes

---

The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 26 showed actively traded funds sold a net 88k corn contracts, taking net longs down to 226k contracts. They sold 18k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 190k, and sold 14k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 39k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 18 cents, July beans lost 24 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 32 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 8 cents, soybeans were flat, and Chicago wheat lost 26 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.