Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 05/29/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	446 3/4	-9
Corn Dec '26	475	-7 1/4
Beans July '26	1186 3/4	-7 3/4
Beans Nov '26	1190	-4
Wheat-Chi July '26	610 1/2	-13 1/2
Wheat-KC July '26	649 3/4	-15 1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	663 3/4	-13 1/2
Cotton Dec '26	79.51	-0.02
Crude Oil July '26	87.73	-1.17
US Dollar Index	98.815	-0.140
Dow Jones	51,135	+392

utside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Our markets closed out the week on a soft note, with corn, beans, and wheat all finishing lower as end-of-month positioning took center stage. The selling continues to be fund long liquidation, with managers paring back the still very large positions in corn and beans, especially in the former with it below all major moving averages.

The Iran story drove the macros again. The White House announced it was ending the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and with Trump in the situation room weighing the memo of understanding, the market traded as if a deal is all but done. Stocks pushed to fresh record highs and crude gave back better than two dollars before settling. Yet the communications coming out of Iran continued to suggest the picture is far from settled, leaving a standard disconnect between what the market seems to believe and what's actually being said out of the region.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: The slide below key moving averages continues in July corn with it closing today at a 3 month low. Resistance is now near 466 while support comes in right below today's close near 446 and then 435.

July soybeans closed back below its 50 day today although off its intraweek lows. Resistance remains near 1197 while support is near today's low of 1183, then 1171 and then down towards 1140. There is a head and shoulders (bearish formation) near 1216 that bulls want to see broken through and a "neckline" near 1191.

Spreads: The July/November inverse is now gone with it closing at a 3 cent carry today with the trade seemingly not believing any nearby sales to China are likely. We feel the carry would prevent a buying opportunity near a 13-14 cent carry.

The July/Dec corn spread widened a bit more to 28, a level we certainly find attractive considering the impressive run of exports.

Weather:  TStorm ratings are unchanged across corn, soybeans, and winter wheat. An absence of polar air keeps the northern to northwestern half of the central US much warmer than normal over the next 10 days. Two systems bring rain from Montana through the mid-South into next week, reaching roughly 25% of corn and soybeans and about 40% of spring wheat, while dry air lingers across the eastern Corn Belt. Upper-level high pressure then shifts south 7 to 10 days out, keeping much of that same eastern half dry. As it stands, some but not all corn, soybeans, and spring wheat look to run drier than ideal 10 to 14 days out, with 30- and 60-day dryness on spring wheat high and 30-day dryness on corn very high. 

Markets/Trading Implications

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More selling to end the week and as we mentioned in the closing text, back to an area in corn when fund managers flipped long at the end of February earlier this year. In our mind, at these price levels in corn, the vast majority of any weather or war premium has been taken out of the market thus it puts the short term direction in the power of the funds and what their intentions are as we get into the summer months. T-Storm is "neutral" in his corn ratings and calling for a dry start to August, thus it's far too early to have any major assumptions that yet another excellent crop is on its way and would have to think that fund managers are going to suddenly flip to a short position. Plus, with issues likely to persist in the Strait including catching up logistically with it being closed for months, we would have to imagine there needs to be some premium added for that.

Bottom line is that we wouldn't be chasing corn sales at these levels unless you have to. Please reach out with any questions regarding your specific situation.As for beans, we have a similar stance in terms of limited downside, but they could be vulnerable to a bit of a bigger slide from current prices, especially if soybean oil starts to correct at all from its recent multi year high. We remain bullish on the China front, but as we talked about yesterday, it seems less and less likely that we see any nearby sales to them considering the premium they would be playing (but also wouldn't rule it out).

Stay tuned. More volatility is likely ahead. Call anytime!

Other Notes

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For the week, July corn was down 16 1/2 cents, July wheat down 36 cents, July beans down 9 3/4 cents, and December cotton up 18 cents.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 26 showed actively traded funds sold a net 88k corn contracts, taking net longs down to 226k contracts. They sold 18k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 190k, and sold 14k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 39k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 18 cents, July beans lost 24 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 32 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 8 cents, soybeans were flat, and Chicago wheat lost 26 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.