Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 05/28/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	455 3/4	+3 1/4
Corn Dec '26	482 1/4	+4 3/4
Beans July '26	1194 1/2	+9 1/4
Beans Nov '26	1194	+12 1/2
Wheat-Chi July '26	624	+1 1/2
Wheat-KC July '26	665 1/4	-4 1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	677 1/4	-3 1/2
Cotton Dec '26	79.46	+0.80
Crude Oil July '26	88.90	+0.22
US Dollar Index	98.955	-0.200
Dow Jones	50,743	+15

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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A bounce back from yesterday's losses, with the war premium that had been wrung out of our markets in recent days (along with fund liquidation) finding its way back a bit in following reports of renewed fighting between the US and Iran. Iranian drone strikes, a US hit near the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's comments that no single country would control the waterway pushed crude higher early in the day and pulled grains up with it.

By midday the story shifted again with word of a 60-day ceasefire under negotiation that would require Trump's approval and reportedly reopen the Strait. Crude eased off its highs on those headlines and closed not far from flat by the time it settled after the grain close.

Beans had the strongest day of the lot, with November outperforming July. The July/November inverse collapsed to a hair above even money, with the trade increasingly skeptical that China is going to step back into US beans anytime in the near future.

China reportedly booked another eight cargoes of Brazilian beans yesterday for August/September shipment, leaving our old crop bean sales pace nothing to brag about. There were rumors of China inquiring on US soybeans early in the morning, but that spread certainly didn't take notice.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: July corn had a nice bounce today, but remains under both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. It opened lower, taking out its low from yesterday fractionally and was never able to trade above its high from yesterday. Last week's high near 469 is resistance and a level bulls want to see breached again and sooner than later. Support comes in around 446 and then 435.

July soybeans managed to close back above their 50 day average after consecutive closes above it, but remain below our resistance level at 1197.   Support is just below Wednesday's close near 1183 and below that at 1171 and then down towards 1140. There is a head and shoulders (bearish formation) near 1216 that bulls want to see broken through.

Spreads: The July/November inverse continues to slip and closed at just a 1/2 cent today with the trade seemingly not believing any nearby sales to China are likely.

The July/Dec corn spread widened a bit more to 26, a level we certainly find attractive considering the impressive run of exports.

Weather:  TStorm upgraded winter wheat to Slightly Favorable while corn and beans held unchanged at Neutral. The forecast is a split, with rain expected across the Plains, mid-South, and parts of the western Corn Belt while the central and eastern Belt stays fairly dry. The rain should benefit spring wheat coming off its driest start to a growing season since 2017 or 2021 and at least stabilize western corn and beans, but the eastern third to half of the Belt will eventually need its turn. An elongated circulation near Kansas continues to generate rain in the Plains, western Corn Belt, and mid-South into next week, while a separate system brings rain to western Montana this weekend before spreading into the northern Plains a few days later. The northwestern half of the central U.S. stays very warm the next 5 to 7 days. One to two weeks out, high pressure in the southern U.S. likely sits too far south to pull muggy air northward, which limits rain coverage and amounts. The weather window that really matters for corn and beans is two to four weeks out, still beyond the forecast horizon. 

Markets/Trading Implications

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Today's bounce was a welcome reprieve, but we'd argue it doesn't really change much in the bigger picture, at least until we are able to make up a bit of ground on the charts including above the 50 day in corn and back above 12.00 in nearby beans. 

The most interesting development this week has been the collapsing of the July/Nov bean spread with the inverse nearly gone. The trade is sending a pretty clear signal that whatever China business eventually materializes, if any, is more likely to land in new crop. That makes November more sensitive to any breakthrough on duties or a weather problem this summer, while July is going to have a harder time finding fresh buyers. 

Corn has some more work to do to feel good about a nearby low being in place, but as we have mentioned, the export pace continues to hold up and fundamentals are quietly tightening. We'd want to see some follow through tomorrow, but funds still carrying historically large longs is a reminder that any sustained progress has to fight through that overhang.

Bigger picture, we continue to think this is not the start of a new bear market. The combination of tightening balance sheets, building chatter about Chinese and possibly Indian grain demand later in the summer, and the heart of the Midwest growing season still ahead should ultimately put a floor under things. The daily war headline volatility makes that hard to see at times, but the broader constructive setup hasn't gone anywhere.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 19 showed actively traded funds bought a net 14k corn contracts, taking net longs up to 314k contracts. They sold 7k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 208k, and sold 6k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 25k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 5 cents, July beans lost 28 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 12 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 12 cents, soybeans lost 14 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 21 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.