Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/14/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	437 3/4	-3 1/4
Dec '26 Corn	459 3/4	-3 1/2
Aug '26 Beans	1191 1/2	-5 1/4
Nov '26 Beans	1191	-3 3/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	644 1/4	+9
Sept '26 KC Wheat	677 3/4	+11 1/2
Dec '26 Cotton	80.94	-0.57
Aug '26 Crude Oil	79.83	+1.83
US Dollar Index	100.72	-0.36
Dow Jones	52,811	+91

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

---

Our markets extended yesterday's fade today, with corn and beans both settling lower after the failed test of resistance we talked about. Wheat was the outlier again, climbing further on its own strength while the rest of the board slipped.

TStorm left the ratings unchanged again today, still neutral on corn, beans, and winter wheat, and the government's own numbers actually showed both corn and soybean conditions improving another point in the good and excellent category this week. Heat holds across the northwest into early next week, but rain chances are picking up for the southern and eastern Corn Belt, so we are not overly alarmed by the forecast yet.

The bigger headline today was off the board entirely. June CPI came in soft, easing some of the inflation pressure the Fed has been watching, and that gave equities a lift and put a real bid under crude, especially with Washington backing off talk of a steep fee for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. That kind of macro tailwind usually finds its way into our markets eventually, even if grains mostly looked past it today.

China's secondary tariff question came up again too, with Trump saying he has not had that conversation yet, and that took a little wind out of the sails even as China keeps buying aggressively. We would not read too much into one comment, especially with the pace of purchases we have seen out of them lately.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn tested resistance at its 50 and 200 day moving averages near 469 yesterday, tagging a fresh high before reversing and then there was some follow through today. Today's close at 459 3/4 confirmed the failure to reclaim it, breaking below the 461 support underneath, which puts 454, then 450 in view if the weakness continues.

Nov beans backed off from the 1197 to 1200 resistance we have been watching, settling at 1191 today. Support still sits at 1180 to 1183, then 1174 to 1170 underneath, so there is some room before this gets uncomfortable.

Weather: The noon update added that rain chances are increasing for the southern and eastern Corn Belt over the next five days, with a bigger cool front looking to move through around Monday, though how much cooling actually shows up is still uncertain.

Markets/Trading Implications

---

Corn's follow through selling following failing at its 50 and 100 day averages yesterday combined  with a more modest weather forecast was the driver today, although we aren't ready to suddenly turn bearish given how crucial the weather is this year between now and into August (see below T-Storms study from today), the overall friendly nearby technical setup and of course with the funds modestly long. We would expect further weakness to be bought for the time being, but does likely need a hotter/drier forecast to trade above yesterdays highs.

Beans held up a little better relatively, still inside the range we have been watching and still above the majority of key moving averages. We would keep leaning on China's buying pace as the bigger driver outside of course weather. In our eyes it has more downside potential on a significantly improved forecast, but the ending stocks are tight enough to avoid a major flush.

For marketing, today's pullback does not change our stance. We are comfortable sitting on our 40% recommendation on new crop corn, and would rather see how this technical/weather test resolves before doing anything different. Every situation is a little different, so give us a call and we can talk through where you stand.

Other Notes

---

• TStorm ran a weather analog study today, looking at the five closest corn and soybean years of the last 48 based on this year's dryness and temperature pattern through July 12. For corn, three of the five closest years finished 8 to 14 bushels above trend while the two years that turned hot later on came in below, and beans showed a similar split. Their takeaway is that temperature from here through August looks like the bigger swing factor for yield than rainfall alone.

• Russian grain shipping through the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait remains restricted and could stay that way for weeks, which is cutting off a meaningful share of Russian grain trade. Rerouting to other ports would add real logistics costs, so this is one worth watching if it starts to show up in the export numbers.

Static Notes

---

• The most recent Commitment of Traders report, covering positions through Tuesday, July 7, showed funds as big buyers across the board. They bought a net 59k corn contracts, flipping to net long 13k, bought a net 37k soybeans to push longs to 69k, and bought 7k Chicago wheat, trimming shorts to 62k. The next update, covering through July 14, is out Friday.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.