Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/13/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	441	+1 1/2
Dec '26 Corn	463 1/4	+2 1/4
Aug '26 Beans	11196 3/4	+5
Nov '26 Beans	1194 3/4	+4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	635 1/4	-5
Sept '26 KC Wheat	666 1/4	-10
Dec '26 Cotton	81.51	-.03
Aug '26 Crude Oil	77.57	+6.16
US Dollar Index	101.04	+.29
Dow Jones	52727	-179

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

---

Our markets gapped higher again today, with corn and beans both pushing on to fresh highs for the move before running out of steam. By the close both had given back the bulk of the day's gains, and wheat did not even get that far, reversing into the red after leading the charge on Friday.

The one theme carrying real weight is China, which followed up Friday's business with another flash sale this morning, the fourth day running of soybean activity. That is more than the steady drip we have been describing, and it is starting to look like it could be the bigger push beans have needed.

Weather stayed the noisier headline than the actual threat, in our view. It is hot in spots, and TStorm left the ratings right where they were, neutral on corn and beans. But with carryovers as tight as they are, it would not take much of a real yield hit to get this market's attention in a hurry, so we are not dismissing it outright.

Outside markets were the wilder story today. Crude jumped 6-7 dollars as the situation around the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend, and equities took it on the chin, with the Nasdaq leading the way down. That kind of move usually has a way of spilling into everything else eventually, even if our markets mostly looked past it today, although soybean oil managed big gains.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn gapped above its 50 and 200 day moving averages near 469 for the first time in a while, tagged a fresh high for the move, then faded back to settle back below that key average on the close. That average is currently at 466, and we ended 3 cents below it. Clearing it decisively opens the low 480s, then 490 and the spring high near 500, while a failure sends it back to 461, then 454 and 450 underneath. The market action vs that average will be key over the next several days.

Nov beans pushed right into the 1197 to 1200 resistance we have been flagging, tagging a fresh high for the move before settling back into the lower end of that range. A close above 1200 opens the one year high near 1214, then 1250, while support underneath still sits at 1180 to 1183, then 1174 to 1170. The pullback into the close was less than ideal, but another run above 1200 and a subsequent close above that level would attract attention and buyers. 

Weather: TStorm left the ratings unchanged today, corn and beans still neutral and winter wheat still neutral, with no changes to the outlook. Heat holds across the northwest half into early this week while the southeast stays seasonable, then a cool front later in the week is expected to ease things again around July 18 to 20, the same window we have been watching.

Our own read is that the weather talk has gotten a little ahead of itself, with this looking more like a typical summer pattern than anything alarming so far. That said, carryovers are tight enough that it would not take much of an actual yield hit to change that read in a hurry.

Markets/Trading Implications

---

Today's fade off the highs is worth watching, but one poor close does not erase the fact that both corn and beans took a run at their best levels in six to seven weeks, and both still managed to hang onto gains for the day. We would treat it as the market taking a breath after a strong run, not a change in trend, at least not yet.

Corn is still the one we like best. Funds flipped net long a few weeks back, right in line with what we had been saying, that we did not think they would look to build or hold much of a short for long, and that has held up so far. Today's test of the 50 and 200 day average is the kind of technical hurdle that, if it clears, could open the door to a bigger move.

Beans have the more interesting story right now. China's commitment to secure 25 million tonnes by year end, backed up by a fourth straight day of actual sales, is closer to the kind of push we have said beans would need. It has not fully shown up in the close yet, but it is the most encouraging development we have seen from China in a while. China still hasn't announced a cut to their tariffs on imports of US corn, beans, and wheat, and until that happens, Chinese buying continues to be limited to government agency buying (COFCO). 

For marketing, today does not change our stance. We are comfortable sitting on our 40% recommendation on new crop corn, and would rather see this technical test resolve itself, and see if China's buying keeps up, before doing anything different. Every situation is a little different, so give us a call and we can talk through where you stand.

Other Notes

---

• On the Iran front, reports have the US striking for a third straight day, with Washington reportedly looking to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by charging a steep fee for safe passage while blockading Iranian crude. That is a lot of headline risk sitting on top of an already jumpy energy market.

• Today's Crop Condition update indicated that the corn crop is rated as 68% good/excellent, up 1% from last week. Soybeans are rated 65% good/excellent, also up 1%. Both were expected to decline slightly. 

• Winter wheat harvest advanced 8% for the week, now 67% complete. 

Static Notes

---

The most recent Commitment of Traders report, covering positions through Tuesday, July 7, showed funds as big buyers across the board. They bought a net 59k corn contracts, flipping to net long 13k, bought a net 37k soybeans to push longs to 69k, and bought 7k Chicago wheat, trimming shorts to 62k. The next update, covering through July 14, is out Friday.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.