Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/09/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	431 1/2	-3 1/2
Dec '26 Corn	452	-4 1/4
Aug '26 Beans	1177 3/4	-15 1/2
Nov '26 Beans	1181 1/2	-10 3/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	619 3/4	+12
Sept '26 KC Wheat	654 1/4	+9
Dec '26 Cotton	80.57	-0.10
Aug '26 Crude Oil	72.08	-1.44
US Dollar Index	100.73	-0.14
Dow Jones	52,761	+137

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Our markets were mixed today, with wheat higher while corn and soybeans both gave back more of the ground they had gained on the recent run. Soybeans led the way lower.

After the buying we have seen since the lows, and with the big report now a day away, today had more of a position squaring feel to it. A good part of this week's move had been built on hopes for Chinese buying and a hotter forecast, and some of that premium came back out.

The forecast did factor in, having looked a bit more threatening in the morning before the afternoon run eased back cooler, though we would not make too much of any one piece on a day like this.

China stayed a presence on the buy side with another round of soybean sales announced, but it was not enough to hold things up.

Wheat was the exception, firming on worries that this year's US production could be cut further.

Outside markets saw crude give back a good chunk of its recent run, the dollar ease, and stocks finish higher.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: December corn slipped under the 454 support we had been watching and settled just above 450, which leaves 450 and then 445 as the next rungs down.454 now turns into resistance.November beans were the bigger mover, sliding all the way back to the 1180 support right where we said it needed to hold on a closing bases. 1174 to 1170 is the next area of support. 

Weather: TStorm downgraded corn and soybeans to slightly unfavorable while winter wheat remains at neutral. Some storms work the southern half of the belt into the weekend while the north stays on the dry side, then a large upper level high builds heat across the northwest half Saturday into early next week. The catch, and a good part of why premium keeps bleeding out, is the high looks to set up too far northwest to take the whole belt, a cool front only glances the eastern belt, and the worst of the ridge may run just four to five days before another front pushes in around the July 18 to 20 window. We are far from out of the woods though, with pollination starting or right around the corner for many.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Two days of backing off has taken some of the steam out of last week's run. What stands out is that the quick buying that kept showing up on breaks last week went quiet the last couple days although like we mentioned, a lot of that could China getting in and out of the market along side their soybean purchases.

Corn is the one we feel better about. Demand has carried this market for months, and if Friday's stocks figure comes in tight the way the trade expects, it lines up with what we have been seeing. The Spanish demand worry that got tied to some of the corn selling looks more like noise than substance to us, since it is hard to see US corn staying out of Europe for long with the drought they are dealing with, but we will see how that talk develops.

Beans are the tougher call. They have given back a good chunk of the China rally and are leaning on support, and with new crop stocks expected to grow they need more help from the weather and from China turning its steady presence into something bigger. The demand has been rea (recently)l, but beans likely need a fresh push to get going again..ideally from weather.

For marketing we are staying patient. We did not sell the highs last week and we are not going to sell into this break the day before the numbers. There are levels above the market where we would get a little more done, but with the report and the yield debate still wide open, we would rather let it clear and see where things stand. Give us a call before you make any moves.

Other Notes

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Here are the average trade guesses for Friday's supply and demand report. Corn ending stocks are expected to come in lower, mostly on the cut to quarterly stocks in the June 30 report, though as you can see a very slight trim to yield is expected as well. Soybean stocks are expected to rise in new crop.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 30 showed actively traded funds bought a net 23k corn contracts, taking net shorts down to 46k. They sold 6k soybeans, taking net longs down to 31k, and bought 2k Chicago wheat, reducing net shorts to 69k.

This week's report, out Friday and covering through July 7, is the one to watch. After the short covering run of the past week and a half, it should show funds having covered aggressively and quite possibly flipping to a net long in corn for the first time in a while.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.