Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/07/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	443 3/4	+5 1/2
Dec '26 Corn	464 1/4	+6 1/2
Aug '26 Beans	1193 3/4	+9 3/4
Nov '26 Beans	1197 3/4	+5 1/2
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	618 1/2	+4 1/2
Sept '26 KC Wheat	652 3/4	+3
Dec '26 Cotton	81.28	+2.98
Crude Oil Spot Futures	72.07	+3.52
US Dollar Index	100.82	+0.21
Dow Jones	53,243	-130

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Yesterday's run got a follow through today, even if it came without quite the same thrust behind it. Higher highs showed up right across the board, and this time corn carried the flag, poking out to its best level since early June while beans lagged early and then found their legs.

Weather did the pushing. The midday GFS run came in a touch more threatening for the next couple of weeks, hotter and drier, and corn used it as the excuse to print that new high. It is a strange spot to be in after weeks of the trade acting like there were bushels to burn, but here we are, watching the map again.

China did more than lurk this time. Word is they bought somewhere between six and ten cargoes of US beans for fall shipment off the PNW and the Gulf on Monday, and they were back asking for offers on both beans and corn this morning. That is the kind of demand that pulled beans up off their early lows, even if the daily sales wire has yet to make any of it official.

Outside markets had a bit more going on than usual, and crude was the standout. Reports that three vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz early today put a real bid under oil, which jumped better than three dollars. Stocks eased back a touch and the dollar firmed slightly, but none of it had much pull on grains, which spent the day trading their own weather map.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn extended the breakout to its best mark since early June and is closing the gap on its 50 day average near 469, which is the next real hurdle. Clear that and the low 480s come into play, then the 500 area where it topped this spring. On a setback, look for support at 453, then 450 and 445.

Nov beans ran right up into the 1197 to 1200 resistance we flagged yesterday and stalled at the number, which is worth respecting until they prove otherwise. A close through there opens the door to the one year high near 1214, the best price in over a year, with support underneath at 1180 to 1183, then 1167 to 1170.

Weather: TStorm left corn, soybeans, and winter wheat unchanged today, all still neutral, with no changes to their outlook. Rains stay active across the belt through the weekend, keeping moisture comfortable, with 90 percent of corn and 81 percent of beans rated near or wetter than normal over the past month. The turn comes Saturday as a large upper level high builds in and shoves heat and drying into the Plains and the northwest third to half of the belt for four to five days, while the eastern half warms more gradually. Around July 14 to 16 the high may get nudged enough to let a cool front drop into the eastern belt, setting up a sharp split, hot out west and cooler east, most in between. Threatening enough to hold a premium in, and notably calmer than the midday model the trade got excited about.

Markets/Trading Implications

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The change of character we have been building toward is holding, and the funds are the ones writing the story. After pressing the short side hard all spring they are covering in a hurry, and by Friday's COT we would not be surprised to see them flipped net long in corn. That is a meaningful shift given how quickly they got short, and it is a big part of why setbacks keep getting bought.

Weather is the swing vote from here. Today's hotter model handed the bulls their excuse, but TStorm doesn't see a crop ending event in the cards, more a typical mid July with some heat and enough doubt to keep a premium built in. That cuts both ways, and our guess is it argues for two sided trade once the fireworks settle rather than a runaway in either direction....at least until there is a major shift.

On beans, China remains the wild card, quietly steady underneath while the contract bumps a level that has capped it before. We would want to see a close above 1200 before trusting the next leg, and until then would not chase it up into resistance without something meaningful from weather.. We would NOT include a sudden cut in tariffs from China that meaningful given the rally thus far.

For marketing, we are staying patient. The plan coming into the week was not to fade or chase the initial pop, and the rally has kept running since. There are levels above here where we would get a little more done, but we are in no hurry and would rather let this prove itself. Give us a call before you make any moves and we will walk through where you sit.

Other Notes

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• The daily sales wire did bring a 100,000 tonne soymeal sale to Colombia, but the rumored Chinese soybean business that had the trade on alert went unconfirmed, which took a bit of air out of an otherwise firm morning. Monday's surge of better than 45,000 contracts in soybean open interest, though, backs up the talk that China was locking in futures right alongside the cash it bought.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 30 showed actively traded funds bought a net 23k corn contracts, taking net shorts down to 46k. They sold 6k soybeans, taking net longs down to 31k, and bought 2k Chicago wheat, reducing net shorts to 69k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, December corn lost 1 cent, November beans gained 2 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 8 cents. In the four market days since, corn has gained 28 1/2 cents, beans 53 1/2 cents, and Chicago wheat 29 1/2 cents, which helps explain the short covering push and sets up a potentially large positioning swing in Friday's update.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.