Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/01/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	422 3/4	+6
Dec '26 Corn	442 1/4	+6 1/4
Aug '26 Beans	1133 1/4	+9
Nov '26 Beans	1149 1/4	+5 1/2
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	600	+10 3/4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	635	+9 3/4
Sept '26 MN Wheat	619 1/4	+12 3/4
Dec '26 Cotton	77.84	+1.04
Aug '26 Crude Oil	68.45	-1.05
US Dollar Index	101.17	+0.21
Dow Jones	52,370	+51

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Our markets managed to add to yesterday's gains and traded firm all day. 

As said yesterday, the lack of any real bearish surprise in yesterday's reports was probably the most important takeaway, leaving no new fuel for the bears. 

As such it appears the fund selling may be on pause for now, and the market seems to finally be recognizing that there are in fact some valid bullish arguments. Mainly this is the continued excellent corn export demand, excellent domestic demand for soybeans (crush), weather uncertainty with extreme temps possibly persisting, bullish heat/drought affecting corn in the EU, and the ongoing waiting game for China to hopefully step forward and validate what the US administration insists they have agreed to. 

By the close, all three of our markets pulled back somewhat from session highs, but all ended in the upper half of their daily ranges. 

Outside markets featured moderately lower crude oil and mixed stocks.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn should see support 434, 430, then at 422  Resistance now seen at 444-446, 452, and its 50 day average at 470.

As for November Beans, major support is at 1135-1139, and then 1118 and 1105 , with resistance at today's high of 1161, their 50 day average at 1166, and then near 1170-1180. 

Weather: TStorm left ratings unchanged today, holding corn and soybeans at Slightly Unfavorable and winter wheat at Neutral. The story is still heat, with moderate to strong warmth running through Friday and Saturday before a system or cool front breaks it down, firing scattered storms across a wide area into the weekend. Beyond that it gets murky, the central US likely splitting between seasonable temperatures southeast and very warm to hot northwest, though our guess is nobody can pin that down with much confidence yet. What we'd hang our hat on is that a big upper level high sits in or near the Plains next week and the week after, so the threat of heat stays on the table until the pattern clearly tips one way or the other.

Markets/Trading Implications

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A said yesterday, "Today gave a tired market something to lean on. The report didn't have to be bullish to help, it just had to clear away the bearish fears that had funds pressing shorts and leaning on the board day after day, and once that cloud lifted the short covering and bargain buying did the rest."

The corn balance sheet tightened a bit, and although soybeans' acreage actually took a slight bearish turn yesterday, the rejection of recent lows and the resultant strength seems to have attracted some buying, probably both short covering and some new longs jumping in.

The fact that the trend is arguably turning from lower to at least sideways is critical in terms of what news the markets choose to "listen to". For too long our markets have ignored any positive arguments, but with the improving technicals, they seem to finally be acknowledging and reacting to some bullish factors that have actually been there for quite some time.  

Other Notes

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• Interestingly, the Trump administration today chose to not renew the USMCA bilateral trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. Although not too long ago President Trump praised this agreement, he has reportedly soured on it recently and is now opting for an annual review of the pact. This news wasn't a shock to the market, and seems to adhere to Trump's use of trade as a bargaining tool in so many matters. 

  
  
  
  

  This action means the trade agreement is still in effect for another 10 years, but will be reviewed annually rather than automatically rolling forward each year. 

• TStorm's YieldCast model which has one of the best track records in the industry, especially for corn, today reduced their corn yield estimate by .5 bushels, but remain at a big premium over the USDA's 183.0, now at 184.7.

Here are updated daily and weekly charts of corn, beans, and crude oil. 

As you can see, we have positive reversal working on the weekly corn chart (started below last week's low and now above last week's high), and soybeans are close to accomplishing the same. Crude oil continues to sink. 

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 23 showed actively traded funds sold a net 23k corn contracts, taking net shorts up to 70k. They sold 16k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 37k, and sold 1k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 71k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 4 cents, July beans lost 13 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 9 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained 3 cents, soybeans gained 9 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 11 cents.  

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.