Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/25/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	414 3/4	+7 3/4
Corn Dec '26	443	+8 1/4
Beans July '26	1127 1/2	+18 3/4
Beans Nov '26	1157	+22
Wheat-Chi July '26	591	+5 1/4
Wheat-KC July '26	620 1/2	+3 1/4
Wheat-MN July '26	587 1/4	+3
Cotton Dec '26	76.99	+0.73
Crude Oil June '26	72.08	+1.74
US Dollar Index	101.220	-0.100
Dow Jones	52,326	+47

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Following the poor closes yesterday, corn and soybean markets again opened weaker, eventually making new contract lows in July corn and weekly low in soybeans overnight. Buying started coming in overnight and only escalated following the day session open. By the close, July and November were able to make up all of their losses to start the week and are now higher on the week. July and December corn traded and closed above their highs from yesterday meaning each completed a bullish key technical reversal considering each made a fresh low overnight.

Firm rumors around more Chinese soybean buying sparked the rally in beans while corn, outside of course of being overdone to the downside, was aided by an increasingly threatening weather forecast.

Those items combined with the bullish technical divergence we have been mentioning confirming today as well as other friendly technical indicators, we would have to think weakness in the short term gets bought for the time being....although the pending USDA report on Tuesday will obviously have large implications.

Outside markets so a new low in crude overnight, but too rallied throughout the day session to close near its highs, althrough still below yesterday's high. Equities markets closed higher, but considerably off its intraday highs.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Corn's slide continued overnight, but reversed overnight and eventually closed near its daily/weekly highs. Todays low near 404 is obvious support given the reversal, but we should see support at 411 in the meantime. It's all about the 422-424 area from there, an area we have been talking about for weeks.

July beans, despite its early weakness, managed to close above our 1115-1121 resistance area and is now higher on the week. There is modest inverted headed and shoulder formation in play now if we are able to get a lasting close above today's high near 1131. Above there, resistance is at 1140 and then 1160. Support is at aforementioned previous resistance around 1118.

Spreads: The July/November carry wasn't impressed as it made a new low today, closing near 29, its widest settlement to date as the trade senses old crop is running out of time to be rescued by any significant increase in Chinese purchases. With First Notice Day for the July contract coming up fast (next Tuesday), the focus will soon be on the August/November spread.

The July/Dec corn spread was weak early, but closed near unchanged at 28. It's widest close was at 29 1/2 last week. This spread has continued to remain historically weak despite strong export demand as the trade sees carryover levels as more than adequate in spite of the decent demand.   

Weather: TStorm held all three crops unchanged with corn at slightly unfavorable and soybeans wand wheat at neural, with the potential for a significant heat wave now increasing across at least part of the corn, bean, and spring wheat areas as the models trend hotter and longer.

Coolness hangs on for two more days, then a sharp transition Sunday into Monday as gusty southwest winds usher in the heat. A large upper level high builds in, keeping highs and lows solidly in the 90s and 70s for at least 5 to 10 days. Earlier runs that had the high breaking down after 3 to 5 days now look too cool, and TStorm sees heat lasting at least 5 days across the southeast half of the crop and 7 to 10 days to the northwest.

The main question is how strong a cool front turns out to be around July 5. The current lean is for near normal temperatures returning to the southeast half for a few days that week, though the northwest stays hot for at least half of corn and beans. Rain moves from the KS and NE area through the southern Belt today into tomorrow, with scattered t-storms following as the heat surges this weekend.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Disappointing action has been the theme lately, but today the market finally paid attention to several friendly factors it had been brushing aside, the coming US heat and its unknown duration, a blistering heat wave hitting corn and wheat across the EU, the damage in Russia and Ukraine that could complicate harvest and shipping, possible Iran buying, and the ever present hope that China steps up. As mentioned above, considering all that and the move we saw today, we have to think the downside is limited for now.

The wildcard, of course, is that perhaps the biggest report of the year lands Tuesday. The consensus seems to be a one to two million acre shift from corn to beans, but that is hardly a given, and it is another reason we do not think it makes much sense for the funds to keep aggressively selling down here. As we have said for a while, carryovers are hardly burdensome, so even a slight shift could carry major implications.

First notice day is Tuesday as well thus that will have implications in nearby direction too. We have talked to many of you, but for those for those holding July basis contracts and have questions, don't hesitate to reach out.

Other Notes

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• China turned up in the weekly export sales data buying beans last week, with more sold to unknown destinations, and cash rumors had them in bidding for September/October beans today. Buyers still need to see this come in steadily to reach the 25 MMT the White House keeps pointing to.

• Trump made his strongest push yet for E15, pressing Congress to fold voluntary year round blending into his supplemental funding package. Should it pass, year round E15 is pegged to add north of 2 billion bushels of corn demand over the next 5 to 7 years.

• On Iran, Bessent said on CNBC that the US will keep an eye on where the unfrozen funds go, with much of it pointed at food and medicine. Tehran maintains it will spend freely, though the deal has those calls made jointly. Iran is a sizable grain buyer in a normal year, in the neighborhood of 9 to 10 MMT of corn and 3 MMT each of beans and wheat.

• Funds look to have been buying back shorts ahead of the weekend across corn, wheat, and beans, leaving them only modestly short and not far off even.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 16 showed actively traded funds sold a net 41k corn contracts, taking net shorts up to 46k. They sold 38k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 53k, and bought 10k Chicago wheat, reducing net shorts to 70k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 6 cents, July beans gained 16 cents, and Chicago wheat gained 11 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost another 2 cents, soybeans lost 14 cents, and Chicago wheat gained another 2 cents.  

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.